[TICKER] — Calibration Tracker

Companion to TICKER (the thesis). This file is the calibration discipline that the soul mandates (04-intellectual-virtues section 10). Every quarterly check-in appends to this log.

Thesis snapshot (initial)

Key predictions (testable)

State each prediction as a falsifiable claim with a timeline.

1. Prediction — e.g., "Revenue growth decelerates below 50% by FY27"
2. Prediction — e.g., "Multiple compresses to below 20x sales by FY28"
3. Prediction — e.g., "Insider buying re-emerges only below $X"

Scenario probabilities (initial)

Kill criteria (initial)

Specific, observable, falsifying conditions. When any fires, the thesis is re-evaluated immediately, not on the regular cadence.

• Criterion 1
• Criterion 2
• Criterion 3
• Criterion 4

Re-read schedule

Checkpoint log

Each check-in appends a section. The question is not "was I right about price?" but "was the reasoning sound regardless of outcome?"

Checkpoint — YYYY-MM-DD

What happened: [actual results, price action, key events since last check]

Predictions vs. actuals:

• Prediction 1: [confirmed / refuted / inconclusive] — [evidence]
• Prediction 2: ...

Kill criteria status:

• Any fired? [yes/no]
• Any near firing? [yes/no, which, how close]

Reasoning assessment: was the original logic sound regardless of price action? [yes / partially / no — explanation]

Thesis update: [no change / minor update / material revision / closed]

New kill criteria added or removed: [if any]

Next checkpoint: YYYY-MM-DD

Calibration scorecard (rolled up after multiple checkpoints)

Track over time:

• How calibrated are the probability estimates? (Did 70% predictions come true ~70% of the time?)
• Which prediction categories are over/under-confident?
• What patterns of error appear?

Linked

• TICKER — the thesis
• 05-decision-framework — calibration loop discipline
• 04-intellectual-virtues — what calibration is for
• base-rates — base-rate context for predictions