Theses

Investment notes

Each one ends with a buy, a pass, or a price we're waiting for.

Published

Palantir Technologies

Worth $85 Buy at $60 As of May 24, 2026

Greenwald-modified narrow-contested

Pipeline

first-read decisions · awaiting full thesis or shelved

FCN shelve with trigger Insider cluster-buy signal is real and the franchise is high-quality, but back-of-envelope EPV-only floor sits ~25-30% below current price — no margin of safety on the kit's primary valuation test, so we wait for either a price reset or evidence the Q1 miss inflects into a multi-quarter restructuring upcycle. 2026-05-25