Theses
Investment notes
Each one ends with a buy, a pass, or a price we're waiting for.
Published
CAG
Conagra Brands, Inc.
Worth $24 Buy at $11.5 As of Jun 2, 2026
Greenwald-modified narrow-contested · 1 first-read
MP
MP Materials Corp.
Worth $50 Buy at $42 As of Jun 10, 2026
Greenwald-modified narrow-contested · 1 first-read
PLTR
Palantir Technologies
Worth $85 Buy at $60 As of May 24, 2026
Greenwald-modified narrow-contested
Pipeline
first-read decisions · awaiting full thesis or shelved- LILA shelve with trigger A real four-insider cluster led by John Malone marks a levered cable stub as cheap, but the stock has already bounced ~40% off the insider buy zone, so the fat margin of safety the leverage demands is only there nearer where insiders actually paid. 2026-06-30
- GO shelve with trigger A profitable, national extreme-value grocer with a real two-insider open-market cluster bought at $7.23 on June 18. But the stock has already run to about $9.47 — a 31% move off the insider-buy level in four trading days — so the dislocation the insiders captured has largely closed. Adjusted EBITDA is guided down 17% year-over-year, which makes this a compressing-unit-economics story, not just a cheap multiple. A conservative earnings-based EPV lands near $5.40–7.00 a share, below the current price, and the $158M goodwill write-down leaves no asset floor underneath. Interesting again near the insiders' own conviction level, not here. 2026-06-24
- SPOK shelve with trigger A debt-free, cash-generative niche communications business near its 52-week low, with a genuine two-insider open-market cluster — a director reversing a full year of selling. But the conservative earnings-based EPV sits at or below the current price, so there is no margin of safety at $10.41. The dividend already runs above GAAP earnings and the wireless leg is in secular decline, which caps how generous the valuation can be. Interesting at a lower price, not here. 2026-06-23
- GIL shelve with trigger A real low-cost moat marked down on a serious accounting allegation, but the HanesBrands acquisition makes the disputed receivables read un-cleanable in 60 minutes, and the EPV-only floor sits below the current price. 2026-06-17
- HRZN shelve with trigger A 38% discount to a just-revalidated NAV with a six-insider cluster is real, but the external-manager fee load and a two-year NAV erosion record mean the post-merger entity must prove NAV stability before the discount reads as mispricing rather than a fair price for the structure. 2026-06-12
- INTU shelve with trigger The franchise is intact and the de-rate is real, but at ~$292 the price still sits ~42% above the EPV-only floor of ~$205 — the market is removing growth premium, not yet creating a value entry. 2026-06-11
- RMD shelve with trigger A high-quality medical-device franchise with a 50–60% global market share, recurring mask-and-supplies revenue, and an 8,200-patent moat is trading 33% below its high on a GLP-1 narrative that may have the sign wrong. Greenwald-modified valuation supports a central value above the current price, but the EPV-only frame puts fair value at $143–$164. The kit shelves rather than commits at $198 — the trigger at $170 widens MoS against the trough scenario while letting the GLP-1 read resolve over the next two prints. 2026-06-03
- GIS shelve with trigger Apparent margin of safety at 9-10x trough EPS is real but narrow; the moat question (does GLP-1 + private-label + post-COVID volume reversion erode pricing power durably?) is the structural hinge, and the price has not yet compressed enough to commit capital ahead of the hinge resolving. Shelve and wait for $30 or for FY27 evidence the volume problem stabilizes. 2026-06-01
- PLAB shelve with trigger Picks-and-shovels photomask oligopolist with $634M net cash on a $2.07B market cap and structural ROIC at 18% TTM (29% five-year average); the Q3 EPS guide cut explains the −33% reaction but the EPV-only floor on a normalized read does not yet clear the kit's margin-of-safety band. Wait for $28 or for the Q3 print (mid-August) to discriminate temporary capacity-build drag from structural margin compression. 2026-05-29
- ROCK shelve with trigger Two-named-insider open-market cluster from the CEO and a VP at $37–39 inside the last five trading days is the highest-value Form 4 signal the kit tracks, but Q1 FY26 EPS missed by 30% on aluminum input pressure and OmniMax integration debt; the residential building-products end market is mid-cycle weak and the post-Renewables-divestiture EPV is unstable on one quarter of pro-forma data. Shelve at $30 or for the Q2 FY26 print (early August). 2026-05-29
- LULU shelve with trigger The franchise is genuinely high-quality (39.83% ROIC, 56.6% gross margin, $922M FCF, ~zero net debt) and the dislocation is structural-multi-vector (CEO transition + founder proxy fight + tariff hit + US sales decline + intensifying competition), but the back-of-envelope EPV-only floor on conservative normalized earnings sits within ~5% of current price — no clean margin of safety on the kit's primary valuation test. Wait for either a price reset to the EPV-conservative floor (~$100) or evidence that FY2026 print stabilizes margins. 2026-05-27
- BLDR shelve with trigger Classic capital-cycle housing-trough setup with a chairman cluster-buy and large new buyback authorization, but back-of-envelope EPV-only floor on through-cycle normalized earnings sits ~15-20% below current price (after net debt) — no margin of safety on the kit's primary valuation test, and the chairman's own March buy was at $87.73 (now underwater at ~$74), so even the inside-information signal does not validate today's price. Wait for the EPV-only floor or for evidence of an EBITDA-margin inflection. 2026-05-26
- FCN shelve with trigger Insider cluster-buy signal is real and the franchise is high-quality, but back-of-envelope EPV-only floor sits ~25-30% below current price — no margin of safety on the kit's primary valuation test, so we wait for either a price reset or evidence the Q1 miss inflects into a multi-quarter restructuring upcycle. 2026-05-25