Companies we'd own at the right price

Names where a thesis has been completed and the verdict is PASS-with-trigger — that is, "not at current price, but interesting if price reaches $X." The watchlist is the bridge between the workbench (research) and the portfolio (capital). Watchlist entries are passive: they sit and wait for a trigger to fire, then return to the workbench for thesis refresh and possible promotion to the portfolio.

A watchlist entry exists because the reasoning was good — we did the work, valued it, and concluded the price was wrong. The entry preserves the conclusion and the trigger so we can act quickly when conditions change.

Master register

Ticker	Thesis	Verdict	Verdict date	Trigger ($)	Central value ($)	Current ($)	Gap to trigger	Methodology	Last review	Next checkpoint
PLTR	PLTR	pass-with-trigger	2026-05-24	60.00	85.00	118.08	−49.2%	greenwald-modified	2026-06-29 (px refresh; PLTR +4.56% on US-Iran relief rally, gap −46.9% → −49.2%, drifted further out; price above $85 central; no actionable shift)	2026-08-04
CAG	CAG	pass-with-trigger	2026-06-02	11.50	24.00	14.08	−18.3%	greenwald-modified (EPV-only fallback; growth-runway gating test fails)	2026-06-29 (px refresh; CAG ~flat at $14.08, gap −18.3%, drifted up/away from the −9.3% June-5 touch; closest watchlist name; the live recalibrated-ruler test — at a conventional single 30–35% MoS off $24 central it would trigger ~$15.60–16.80, so its non-trigger is an artifact of the deep EPV-only $11.50; flagged front-of-queue for the owed Backlog single-discount re-run, NO discretionary buy)	2026-07-15 (Q4 FY26 print + FY27 guide); mid-cycle check if price < $12.00
MP	MP	pass-with-trigger	2026-06-09	42.00	50.00	55.62	−24.5%	greenwald-modified (EPV + asset value; 1 of 3 gating tests pass)	2026-06-29 (px refresh; MP ~+3.2% to $55.62 on relief rally, gap −22.1% → −24.5%, above $50 central; no margin of safety)	2026-08 (Q2 2026 print); 2026-11 (Chinese export-control package expiry — binary catalyst)

MP added 2026-06-09 on initial full thesis. The verdict corrects the 2026-05-29-critical-minerals-capital-cycle-dossier-v1 placeholder ($60/$85) downward to $42/$50; rationale in MP-thesis §5 and MP-shadow-matrix. EPV floor ~$7.50/sh; the entire value above it is optionality, hence the wide $35–95 range and the conservative central.

Row updated 2026-05-25 to reflect the 2026-05-24 doctrine recalibration: methodology shifted from pure-Klarman EPV-only to Greenwald-modified EPV-plus-growth; central value $52 → $85, trigger $29 → $60. See PLTR refresh section and PLTR-consensus-gap for detail.

Current-price column refreshed 2026-06-28 (weekly optimization) to the June-26 settled marks carried in Portfolio / 2026-06-28-PM — Palantir $112.93, Conagra $14.07, MP Materials $53.90 — replacing the three-week-stale 2026-06-05 prices; gaps to trigger recomputed. Triggers and central values are unchanged: the recalibrated single-discount re-run that may move these is the owed P1 in Backlog ("Re-run the existing 15 names through the recalibrated ruler").

How entries get added

A name enters the watchlist when a completed thesis (in 09-Theses/<TICKER>/) concludes with one of these verdicts:

• pass-with-trigger — the central value estimate is meaningfully above the buy trigger, and there's a credible path to the trigger (cyclical compression, multiple reset, capital cycle bottom). The name is worth re-engaging if the trigger fires.
• Not avoid — a name we judged structurally broken stays filed, not on the watchlist. Re-engagement should require a fundamental change, not just a price change.
• Not pass (no trigger) — a name where current price is roughly fair and there's no clear dislocation level we'd act on. Filed.

How entries get acted on

When the daily scan flags a watchlist name within 10% of trigger:

1. Re-read the thesis cold. Has anything material changed in the business since verdict_date?
2. Pull fresh data — quarter results, recent filings, sell-side moves, insider activity.
3. Update the thesis with current information.
4. Re-run the valuation triangulation. Is the central value still ~$X? Has it moved?
5. If the underlying reasoning still holds and the trigger has fired, the verdict flips to BUY and the name routes to the portfolio.
6. If the underlying reasoning has weakened, the verdict flips to AVOID and the name comes off the watchlist (no longer worth waiting for).

How entries get removed

A watchlist entry leaves the watchlist when:

• Price hits the trigger → promoted to portfolio (or downgraded to avoid if thesis no longer holds)
• Thesis updated and the structural read changes → re-routed accordingly
• Significant time has passed without trigger firing and the underlying thesis has become stale → re-routed to filed-pass or avoid after a fresh look

Periodic discipline

Each watchlist entry is re-reviewed on its calibration tracker's schedule (typically quarterly). Even with no price movement, the underlying business changes, and the trigger may need adjustment. A stale watchlist is dangerous — it accumulates entries whose theses no longer reflect current reality.

Linked

• Portfolio — the next stage if a trigger fires and the thesis still holds
• Transactions — chronological log of verdict changes and trades
• deliverable-suite — where the watchlist sits in the broader pipeline
• margin-of-safety-pricing — how triggers are set
• 05-decision-framework — the gates each name passes through before reaching the watchlist