Papers
Long-form research
One topic per weekday, in depth. A single question, an answer, the evidence.
Mon
Business
Tue
Geopolitics
Wed
Technology
Thu
Markets
Fri
Themes
Business
- Jun 29, 2026 The financing turn lands on the edge of the network first. CoreWeave is the edge's purest exhibit — GPU-collateralized debt, one customer at two-thirds of revenue, a circular Nvidia sponsor, and insiders selling. Is its $99 billion backlog the annuity the consensus reads, or a demand artifact that cannot refinance a maturity?
- Jun 22, 2026 Micron reports Wednesday with gross margin guided near 81% and HBM sold out through 2026. Is memory's pricing power a durable structural re-rating, or peak-cycle earnings being capitalized as permanent?
- Jun 15, 2026 The largest IPO in history just priced into the AI theme, with OpenAI and Anthropic behind it. Is the issuance wave the capital cycle's influx-phase signal — and what does the base rate say follows?
- Jun 8, 2026 Did the AI cohort fade on catalyst quality, or did one rising discount rate do most of the work the discriminator has been credited with?
- Jun 1, 2026 Dell at 234% YTD and HPE printing tonight — is the AI-server integrator layer a compounding moat or commoditized order flow priced as one?
- May 28, 2026 Token-related cost cuts and the Yellow Brick Road — are corporates redirecting payroll into a productivity dividend they keep, or up the AI stack into a meter they don't?
- May 25, 2026 PLTR-down-on-beat — idiosyncratic valuation reset or the cycle-late selectivity marker?
Geopolitics
- Jun 23, 2026 Has oil priced a clean Hormuz reopening the mines don't support?
- Jun 16, 2026 If Warsh kills the dot plot tomorrow, is the market right to read it as hawkish?
- Jun 9, 2026 Is the market mispricing Warsh's reaction function on the energy shock?
- Jun 2, 2026 One week after the Axios MOU — what the Brent–WTI spread compression from $11 to $2.82 is decomposing, and whether the kit's "two cuts by year-end" rate-path framing has gone stale
- May 26, 2026 Decomposing Brent at $99 — what implied probability weighting on the Iran trinary is the energy tape actually pricing, and where does it diverge from structural deal mechanics
Technology
- Jun 24, 2026 Micron just printed an 84.6% gross margin on flat cost of goods — is memory's margin structure permanently broken higher, or did multi-year contracts pull the peak into one quarter?
- Jun 17, 2026 Does the AI coding-agent layer own a business, or just rent one? What the $60B Cursor price tests
- Jun 10, 2026 Is Intel now a credible second source at the leading edge — and what does the Google TPU order actually constrain?
- Jun 3, 2026 Has grid interconnection become the binding constraint on AI compute deployment through 2027?
- May 27, 2026 Has HBM replaced CoWoS as the binding constraint on AI accelerator output? Both still co-bind — but the binding order has formally inverted
Markets
- Jul 2, 2026 Who is actually funding the AI buildout — cash flow, or credit?
- Jun 25, 2026 The largest equity raise in history just funded the memory supply — does it date the re-rate?
- Jun 18, 2026 The equity risk premium is zero — unless you assume the growth
- Jun 11, 2026 Equities repriced, volatility repriced, high yield moved nine basis points — which market is wrong?
- Jun 4, 2026 Wednesday's cross-asset move was stagflation, not recession — what the nine-week streak hid.
- May 28, 2026 Has the AI-memory cohort multiple just inflected? Reading the MRVL 16% extended-hours range.
Themes
- Jun 26, 2026 AI buildout financing — the capital-supply turn: why the funding channel, not the demand, is the binding constraint, why it cracks before demand does, and what the telecom base rate says (v1)
- Jun 19, 2026 US-China decoupling — what has actually shifted versus the narrative, the three November expiries, and where the rent and risk really sit (v1)
- Jun 12, 2026 Synchronized tightening on a fading energy shock (v1) — the base rate for hiking into a supply shock, and where the mispricing sits
- Jun 5, 2026 AI infrastructure capacity (v1) — the supply curve, the demand assumptions, and the price of being wrong
- May 29, 2026 Critical minerals — Phase 2 of the capital cycle, the 2010 base rate, and the price of being wrong on the duration of Chinese export controls (v1)