Portfolio — agent's paper portfolio (the benchmark)

This is AlphaSteve's own portfolio — paper capital managed by the agent, used to measure whether the kit actually generates alpha versus the S&P 500. It is NOT the user's real positions. The discipline is the same as a real portfolio; the capital is paper.

Mandate

• Inception: 2026-05-26 (Tuesday — Monday May 25 is Memorial Day, US markets closed)
• Starting capital: $10,000 USD
• Benchmark: S&P 500 (SPY total return)
• Universe: US-listed common stock, ADRs, ETFs (SPY excluded as it is the benchmark)
• Direction: long only (no shorts)
• Decision authority: agent executes autonomously when kit discipline is clear (kill criteria firing, sell trigger crossed, watchlist trigger firing with thesis refresh confirming, or a probe opened per the probe-book mandate). All actions logged in Transactions.
• Cadence: daily check (weekdays, fires ~6:00 PM ET after the PM scan writes settled closes); initial build runs on the first daily-check if portfolio is empty.
• Cash mandate (added 2026-06-28): cash is a position with an opportunity cost, not a free default. >70% cash for >2 weeks is a flagged state requiring a written cash post-mortem. See position-sizing-kelly § budgeted cash mandate.
• Probe-book mandate (added 2026-06-28): when a continue/quality name sits within ~10% of its (recalibrated) trigger, a Probe (0.5–1.5%) may be opened explicitly to buy information, marked probe: information in Transactions. The standing target is to hold the top 1–3 ranked names as probes once any is in range, rather than waiting indefinitely for a full-MoS Core entry. This exists to break the zero-sample trap the external-audit-2026-06-28 identified.

A position enters the portfolio when a thesis verdict is BUY (directly out of fresh research, or via watchlist-trigger-firing followed by thesis refresh) or as a Probe under the probe-book mandate. A position exits when sold or stopped out per the kill-criteria framework.

Current drawdown state

The daily portfolio check (9:00 AM, weekdays) updates this section before doing anything else. The values below are read by the drawdown-protocol to determine which band applies.

When a band crosses, the day's portfolio note records the crossing event with the recommended action, and the "Pending mandated actions" row carries the action until completed. Band thresholds, definitions, and recommended responses live in drawdown-protocol.

Master register

*No active positions as of 2026-07-02 (day 27 post-inception, fourth trading day of week 6; week-6 close — Fri July 3 is the Independence Day holiday, US markets closed, next settled session Mon July 6). The initial build (2026-05-26) deliberately held 100% cash and that posture continues. Canonical closes 2026-07-02-closes status: partial — the good kind: the file was pulled 17:15 ET, AFTER the 4:00 PM cash close, and the index core is settled and two-source (S&P 500 7,483.24 +0.00%, Dow 52,900.07 +1.14% fresh record, Nasdaq 25,832.67 −0.80% — TheStreet + Yahoo/CNBC to the exact level on S&P and Dow, direction+magnitude on Nasdaq; signs arithmetic-checked vs. the July-1 settled basis). The partial tag is structural (Russell/VIX/commodity/rate rows single-source; every single-name read partial; SPY has no retrievable ETF settle → derived per benchmark-sourcing-discipline reader rule #4), NOT a timing miss and NOT a missing file → no P1 discipline-failure is owed today (second clean post-close run in a row after the June-30 total-miss). Tape: a rotation — Dow to a fresh record (+1.14%, 24 of 30 members up) while the Nasdaq gave back −0.80% on semiconductor profit-taking and the S&P finished dead flat (+0.01 pt); gold broke above $4,100 (+2%) after a weak jobs print, WTI fell to ~$67 (lowest since late Feb) on Strait-of-Hormuz flows + US-Iran talks progress. **Benchmark mark (honest-benchmark rule): no ETF settle → SPY derived from the flat S&P session, ~$741.9 unchanged from July-1. SPY cum = (741.9 − 749.25)/749.25 = −0.98%; SPY alpha = +0.98 pp — reported FIRST as the freshest figure (less flattering than the June-26 booked $728.99 / −2.70% / +2.70 pp, which is shown alongside, never alone). A flat S&P leaves the measured SPY edge where July-1 left it (+1 pp) — the honest, un-frozen mark.** RPV/RPG June-8 estimates are now eighteen sessions stale — the single largest soft-spot in the ledger; re-anchor still owed (P1). Pipeline (July-2 partial single-name reads): PLTR source conflict $125.40 (aggregator) vs. ~$116.70 (July-1 carry), logged not resolved; gap to $60 ≈ −48.6% to −52.2% either way, above $85 central; CAG ~$14.30 (gap to $11.50 ≈ −17.7% → −19.6%, drifted further away, still the closest watchlist name — the live recalibrated-ruler test: at a conventional single 30% MoS off $24 central it would trigger ~$16.80, and CAG at $14.30 already sits below that level, so its non-trigger is purely an artifact of the deep EPV-only $11.50; flagged front-of-queue for the owed Backlog single-discount re-run, NO discretionary buy ahead of that formal recalibration); MP $54.28 (gap to $42 ≈ −25.1% → −22.6%, drifted modestly toward trigger on oil/commodity softness, still above $50 central). No registered watchlist trigger fired; no name in the ~10% probe range (closest CAG −19.6%, widening) → no information-probe on the table today; no kill criteria firing (no positions). Cash post-mortem carried (>70% cash >2wk flag active, day 27): opportunity set thin at index-record levels — PLTR ($116.70–125.40 vs $85 central) and MP ($54.28 vs $50 central) trade above their own central values; CAG is the lone crack and the whole case rests on whether the owed single-discount re-run reprices its trigger up from $11.50 toward ~$16.80. Shadow Book re-marked to today's partial closes — aggregate cost-of-waiting ≈ −2.6% (discipline net-saved so far; CAG ~+12% the lone compounder), no trigger filled. Day 27 closes week 6 at 100% cash; the six-month-test (2026-11-26) is the evaluator. See Daily-Notes/2026-07-02.md for today's full reasoning.*

Cash

| 2026-06-29 | $10,000.00 | 100% (day 24 — no actions; first clean settled-pull run after the June 15–26 cron-failure streak; closes 2026-06-29-closes pulled 17:15 ET post-close, partial structural not timing → no P1 owed; US-Iran-relief rally: S&P 7,440.43 +1.18%, Nasdaq 25,820.15 +2.07%, Dow 52,182.74 +0.59% first close >52,000, Alphabet joined Dow +~5%, Russell flat; honest-benchmark rule: derived SPY ~$737.62 → cum −1.55%, alpha +1.55 pp reported first; June-26 booked $728.99 / −2.70% / +2.70 pp alongside; rally handed back ~1.15 pp of measured edge; RPV/RPG June-8 est fifteen sessions stale; PLTR $118.08 gap −49.2%, CAG ~$14.08 gap −18.3% closest name (live recalibrated-ruler test), MP ~$55.62 gap −24.5% above central; no registered watchlist trigger fired; no probe in range; no kill criteria; cash post-mortem performed; Shadow Book marked, cost-of-waiting ≈ −2.3%) |

Cash buffer is part of the strategy, not a residual. The deep-value framework explicitly favors holding cash when nothing screens cheap enough (see margin-of-safety-pricing).

Conviction tiers (from position-sizing-kelly)

Hard limits regardless of conviction:

• No single position above 15% at cost
• No single industry above 30%
• No single country above 25% (Tier 1 country)

Position-management discipline (lives here, not in the thesis)

Each active position is managed against:

1. Buy / build pattern — sized incrementally to target weight as conviction confirms and (where applicable) price weakens.
2. Sell trigger — when central value is reached, trim to half position; when 15-25% above central value, exit fully.
3. Kill criteria — specific observable events from the thesis. When any fires, the thesis is re-evaluated immediately, not on the regular cadence. If the kill is confirmed, position is exited regardless of price.
4. Opportunity cost test — periodically (at least quarterly), is this position still the best use of this slot, or is there a clearly better idea in the workbench / watchlist with wider margin of safety?

Daily / weekly tracking cadence

• Daily — pre-market scan checks each portfolio position against current price for kill-criteria proximity and trigger crossing
• Weekly — Monday digest reviews each position end-to-end (price, P&L, news, filings, insider activity, kill-criteria status)
• Per-position calibration tracker — appended at each calibration checkpoint (quarterly + 12-month + 24-month from buy date)

How to add a position

When a buy decision is made:

1. Record the transaction in Transactions with date, price, size, and link to the thesis
2. Add a row to this register
3. Update the linked thesis's frontmatter: verdict: buy, position_size_pct: <target>, buy_date: <date>
4. Move the calibration tracker from "pre-position" to "active position" mode (the schedule starts from buy date if it differs from the thesis verdict date)
5. Set up automated price alerts at the sell trigger and at material kill-criteria thresholds

How to exit a position

When a sell decision is made:

1. Record the transaction in Transactions with date, price, size, reason (sell trigger / kill criterion / opportunity cost / other)
2. Update the register row — move size to 0%, note the exit date and exit price
3. Update the thesis frontmatter: verdict: held → exited, exit_date, exit_price
4. Calibration tracker continues for at least 12 months post-exit to test whether the exit decision was correct
5. Consider whether the name should re-enter the watchlist if a future price level would warrant re-engagement

Transaction cost model

Even paper money is debited a realistic friction at every transaction. Without this, the Performance scoreboard understates the cost of activity and overstates the kit's edge — and a 6-month scorecard built on frictionless returns cannot be honestly compared to anything investable.

Friction is applied as a round-trip cost on the dollar value of each transaction, on both the buy and the sell side, regardless of whether the position was profitable. Tiers:

The friction is applied at the moment of transaction in Transactions and flows into NAV via the cost basis. A buy of $1,000 of a large-cap large-liquid name records as $1,005 invested ($1,000 stock plus $5 round-trip friction, half applied at buy); the sell side records the remaining half against proceeds.

For ETFs (excluding SPY, which is the benchmark and not investable), the tier is determined by the underlying basket — broad large-cap ETFs at 10 bps, sector or factor ETFs at 25 bps, narrow thematic or country ETFs at 50 bps.

The friction tiers are deliberately conservative for a paper portfolio. The point is that the 6-month scorecard reflects a realistic operating cost, not an idealized one.

Linked

• Watchlist — the previous stage; names move here when triggers fire and thesis refreshes confirm
• Transactions — chronological log of all buys, sells, and verdict changes
• Performance — daily NAV, alpha vs. SPY / RPV / RPG, drawdown ledger
• drawdown-protocol — portfolio-level kill criteria the daily check enforces against the state above
• position-sizing-kelly — the sizing framework
• permanent-capital-loss — what position management is ultimately protecting against
• margin-of-safety-pricing — sell discipline anchors
• deliverable-suite — where the portfolio sits in the broader pipeline
• six-month-test — the calibration checkpoint that scores realized vs. expected behavior

Performance — daily NAV and alpha vs. SPY, RPV, RPG

Daily ledger of the agent's paper portfolio performance. The primary benchmark is SPY total return from the same inception date; the secondary benchmarks are RPV (Russell 1000 Value, Invesco S&P 500 Pure Value ETF) and RPG (Russell 1000 Growth, Invesco S&P 500 Pure Growth ETF). Alpha is the cumulative return differential against each benchmark — positive alpha means the agent is generating returns above the benchmark; negative alpha means the benchmark would have done better.

Three benchmarks rather than one because a long-only deep-value portfolio is implicitly long the value factor. A kit that beats SPY but matches RPV is not generating alpha — it is renting value-factor exposure that any value ETF would deliver. The RPG track is the opposing comparison: if value as a category is having a hostile multi-year period, the gap to RPG quantifies the regime cost. Without all three, the six-month-test cannot honestly score whether the kit's edge is methodological or factor-based.

The point of this file is not to celebrate good days. It is to measure honestly whether the kit's discipline — deep value, structural quality, margin of safety — produces excess returns over a meaningful holding period versus the right comparison. Over short horizons, alpha is noise. Over multi-year horizons, it is the verdict on the kit itself.

Inception

Date: 2026-05-26 (Tuesday — Monday May 25 is Memorial Day, US markets closed) Starting NAV: $10,000.00 Starting SPY benchmark: $749.25 T3 Starting RPV benchmark: $112.43 T3 Starting RPG benchmark: $59.23 T3 Initial allocation: 100% cash. The deep-value discipline did not produce a buy-verdict thesis at today's prices on any pipeline name; cash is the kit-aligned posture at inception. See Portfolio and Daily-Notes/2026-05-26.md.

Daily ledger

| 2026-06-12 | 10,000.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | −3.18% (June-10 SPY settled, carried; June-11 derived −1.49%, not booked) | ~+0.9% est (carried) | ~+0.7% est (carried) | +3.18 pp (booked basis; ~+1.49 pp on June-11 derived) | ~−0.9 pp est | ~−0.7 pp est | Day 14. Fifth trading day of week 3; week 3 close. Still 100% cash, no actions. SpaceX debut day; fourth consecutive session with no settled US close retrievable at run time — canonical 2026-06-12-closes status: partial. Late reads: S&P flat (Trading Economics wrap) vs +0.33% (TheStreet 13:00 ET) — small-positive-to-flat, magnitude unresolved; Dow +0.40% (direction dual-confirmed UP); Nasdaq direction NOT asserted (−0.5% Nasdaq-100 vs +0.07% Composite, different indices/timestamps); WTI/Brent DOWN dual-confirmed (WTI to 8-week low, $84–86 reads); gold UP dual-confirmed ($4,200–4,218, +2.1–2.5% — rallied alongside the deal tape, against prior pattern) T3. June-11 index settles now dual-confirmed by a second family (Investing.com): S&P 7,394.30 (+1.75%), Nasdaq 25,809.66 (+2.54%), Dow 50,848.75 (+1.86%), Russell 2,919.64 (+~3.0%), VIX 19.44 (−12.51%, upgraded to dual). But no June-11 or June-12 SPY ETF settle exists → June-10 SPY settled 725.43 remains the booked rebase reference per closes file and benchmark-sourcing-discipline rule #4: SPY cum −3.18%, SPY alpha +3.18 pp — carried. Flag: applying the dual-confirmed S&P +1.75% June-11 day to the settled SPY base derives June-11 SPY $738.1 → cum ~−1.49% / alpha ~+1.49 pp — not booked, but it supersedes yesterday's single-source ~$734.54 (+1.26%) read, which conflicts with the dual-confirmed index move. Expect roughly 1.7 pp of the booked +3.18 pp to hand back when SPY settles. RPV/RPG: no settled reads since June-8 → estimates carried (cum ~+0.9% / ~+0.7%), now FOUR sessions stale across a net June 9–12 path of two down days, one strong up day, one ~flat day; staleness materially degrades these columns — flagged for priority re-anchor on next settled pull. Pipeline: SPCX debut +25–28% vs $135 IPO (close magnitude unresolved; ~$2.2T cap at $176.52 high) — not a deep-value candidate, noted for tape character only; ADBE $200.80 at 15:30 ET read (−8.2% on the day, seven-year-low territory; June-11 settled 218.80 dual) — second consecutive de-rate day post-print, candidate for deeper work if the AM scan confirms; PLTR carry ~$129.50 — gap to $60 ≈ −54%; MP carry ~$56–58 unresolved — far above $42 trigger (Rosenthal Form 4 still owed, EDGAR egress-blocked); CAG carry $13.36 — gap to $11.50 ≈ −13.9%, out of band; HRZN first-read shelved this morning at $3.80 trigger (carry $4.34); DAN June-11 settled 30.11 (−15.11%), PTC 118.39 (−12.36%) — both adopted, superseding intraday reads. No registered watchlist trigger fired; no kill criteria firing (no positions). Day 14 closes week 3 at 100% cash with booked SPY alpha +3.18 pp (probably ~+1.5 pp on true basis); the six-month-test (2026-11-26) remains the evaluator. | | 2026-06-15 | 10,000.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | −3.18% (June-10 SPY settled, carried; June-15 +1.5% session implies ~flat to inception, not booked) | ~+0.9% est (carried, 5 sessions stale) | ~+0.7% est (carried, 5 sessions stale) | +3.18 pp (booked basis; likely most handed back on settle) | ~−0.9 pp est | ~−0.7 pp est | Day 15. First trading day of week 4 (four-day week — Juneteenth Fri June 19). Still 100% cash, no actions. Canonical closes 2026-06-15-closes status: not-yet-settled — the PM scan fired ~15:40–16:00 ET, before the 4:00 PM cash close, so no June-15 row is settle-able. Per benchmark-sourcing-discipline prior-day references carried, no web pull; a P1 discipline-failure is logged in Backlog ("closes file not-yet-settled at portfolio-daily run time 2026-06-15 16:02 ET"); today's note records that current-day closes were not available. Tape character (mid-session reads, not closes): broad U.S.-Iran-peace-deal relief rally — Trump declared the deal "complete" Sunday (Friday signing in Switzerland, Hormuz reopening on signature); S&P +1.5%, Nasdaq +2.8%, Dow to a record, WTI/Brent −5%+ to 3-month lows, gold +2.8%, VIX sub-18 T3. No SPY ETF settle since June-10 → June-10 SPY settled 725.43 remains the booked reference per rule #4: SPY cum −3.18%, SPY alpha +3.18 pp — carried. June-11 derived ~$738.1 stays flagged-not-booked; a +1.5% June-15 session implies SPY ~$749 (≈ flat to the $749.25 inception anchor) — not booked. Expect most of the booked +3.18 pp to hand back when SPY settles — the relief rally is the symmetric cost of the cash posture, the same configuration as the June 5→8 and June 10→11 swings. RPV/RPG: no settled reads since June-8 → estimates carried (cum ~+0.9% / ~+0.7%), now five sessions stale across a net-up relief path; both likely understate the benchmarks now (a strong up week), so true cash alpha vs. both is likely worse than the −0.9/−0.7 pp shown — flagged for priority re-anchor on the next settled pull. Pipeline (carried, unsettled): PLTR ~$128.22 (June-14) gap to $60 ≈ −53%; CAG $13.74 (June-12) gap to $11.50 ≈ −16.3% (out of band, drifting wider on staples-vs-relief divergence); MP ~$57.18–57.58 (June-12) far above $42 trigger / above $50 central; ADBE ~$200.80 seven-year-low territory (AM-scan deeper-work candidate); SPCX ~$169 premarket (debut +19% Friday vs $135 IPO, not a value candidate). No registered watchlist trigger fired; no kill criteria firing (no positions). FOMC June 16–17 (Warsh's first; hold expected) is the week's macro hinge. Day 15 noise; six-month-test (2026-11-26) remains the evaluator. | | 2026-06-16 | 10,000.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | −3.18% (June-10 SPY settled, carried; June-16 −0.40% session implies ~flat to inception, not booked) | ~+0.9% est (carried, 6 sessions stale) | ~+0.7% est (carried, 6 sessions stale) | +3.18 pp (booked basis; likely most handed back on settle) | ~−0.9 pp est | ~−0.7 pp est | Day 16. Second trading day of week 4 (four-day week — Juneteenth Fri June 19). Still 100% cash, no actions. Canonical closes 2026-06-16-closes status: not-yet-settled — SECOND CONSECUTIVE day of this failure — the PM scan fired ~15:45–15:55 ET, before the 4:00 PM cash close, so no June-16 row is settle-able. Per benchmark-sourcing-discipline prior-day references carried, no web pull; a second P1 discipline-failure is logged in Backlog (flagged second-consecutive; the recurrence should bump the PM-scan timing fix ahead of the queue); today's note records that current-day closes were not available. Tape character (mid-session reads, not closes): second-day rotation, not a continuation of Monday's rally — money out of mega-cap tech for a second leg, AI cohort fading. Both source families (TheStreet, CNBC/finviz) agree to the basis point: S&P −0.40%, Nasdaq −0.81%, Dow +0.74% (fresh record), Russell −0.63%; VIX down to ~16.2–17; WTI ~$77.3 (−4%), Brent $78.8 (−5.23%) extending the war-premium drain on the signed U.S.-Iran memorandum; gold ~flat ~$4,340–4,363; 10Y ~4.47% into FOMC day one (a 4.179% real-yield read and a stale gold/oil read excluded) T3. No SPY ETF settle since June-10 → June-10 SPY settled 725.43 remains the booked reference per rule #4: SPY cum −3.18%, SPY alpha +3.18 pp — carried. An S&P −0.40% session off the June-15 settled basis (S&P 7,554.29) implies SPY ~$749 derived (≈ flat to the $749.25 inception anchor) — not booked. Expect most of the booked +3.18 pp to hand back once SPY settles — Monday's relief rally already lifted the deployed benchmarks back toward inception; the cash posture's symmetric cost. RPV/RPG: no settled reads since June-8 → estimates carried (cum ~+0.9% / ~+0.7%), now six sessions stale across a net-up week; both likely understate the benchmarks now, so true cash alpha vs. both is likely worse than the −0.9/−0.7 pp shown — flagged for priority re-anchor on the next settled pull. Pipeline (carried, unsettled): PLTR $134.58 (June-16 AM) gap to $60 ≈ −55%; CAG $13.74 gap to $11.50 ≈ −16.3% (out of band); MP ~$57–58 far above $42 trigger / above $50 central; ADBE ~$200.80 (seven-year-low territory, software-cohort first-read queued); GIL ~$52 (−18 to −24%) short-report dislocation, FY2026 guidance reaffirmed, Tier 2 surface; WLY ~flat on a Q4 beat + above-consensus FY27 guide; SPCX +20% on the $60B Anysphere acquisition (top-of-cycle financing marker, not a value candidate). No registered watchlist trigger fired; no kill criteria firing (no positions). FOMC decision + projections + Warsh's first press conference land tomorrow June 17 (hold at 3.50–3.75% near-certain) — the week's macro hinge. Day 16 noise; six-month-test (2026-11-26) remains the evaluator. | | 2026-06-17 | 10,000.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | −3.18% (June-10 SPY settled, carried; June-17 −1.12% de-rate implies SPY $741 derived ~−1.1%/−1.6%, not booked) | ~+0.9% est (carried, 7 sessions stale) | ~+0.7% est (carried, 7 sessions stale) | +3.18 pp (booked basis; less likely to fully hand back after today's de-rate) | ~−0.9 pp est | ~−0.7 pp est | Day 17. Third trading day of week 4 (four-day week — Juneteenth Fri June 19). Still 100% cash, no actions. Canonical closes 2026-06-17-closes status: not-yet-settled — THIRD CONSECUTIVE day — the PM scan fired ~15:40 ET, before the 4:00 PM cash close, so no June-17 row is settle-able. Per benchmark-sourcing-discipline prior-day references carried, no web pull; a third P1 discipline-failure is logged in Backlog (flagged third-consecutive; the recurrence should jump the PM-scan timing fix to the front of the queue; a compounding second defect named — the owed settled-close addendum is not written back overnight); today's note records that current-day closes were not available. Tape character (mid-session reads, not closes): broad hawkish-FOMC de-rate — the Fed held at 3.50–3.75% as expected, but the dot plot was hawkish (nine of 18 officials penciling at least one 2026 hike, six of those multiple) and Warsh's first press conference dropped forward guidance and declined to signal the next move; stocks hit session lows after the presser. Both source families agree on direction: S&P −1.12% (TheStreet) to −1.2% (CNBC/Schwab), Nasdaq −1.04% to −1.2%, Dow −0.93% (−504 pts) to −1.0%, Russell ~−0.87%; May retail sales +0.9% vs +0.5% est reinforced the no-cut read; 10Y rose to ~4.45–4.50%; WTI ~$77 / Brent ~$78–79 near multi-month lows; gold corrected lower, above $4,300; VIX up T3. No SPY ETF settle since June-10 → June-10 SPY settled 725.43 remains the booked reference per rule #4: SPY cum −3.18%, SPY alpha +3.18 pp — carried. An S&P ~−1.12% session off the June-16 settled basis (itself an unresolved same-tier conflict: 7,548.60 / −0.08% vs −0.57%) implies SPY ~$741 derived (cum ~−1.1% to −1.6%) — not booked. Today's de-rate is the first session since the June-15 relief rally to push the deployed benchmark back down toward the booked level — the expected give-back of the booked +3.18 pp narrows rather than widens. RPV/RPG: no settled reads since June-8 → estimates carried (cum ~+0.9% / ~+0.7%), now seven sessions stale; a hawkish-rate-fear de-rate typically hits RPG (long-duration growth) harder than RPV (value), so true cash alpha vs. RPG likely better than the carried −0.7 pp, vs. RPV roughly held — flagged for priority re-anchor on the next settled pull. Pipeline (carried, unsettled): PLTR ~$132 (June-17 AM) gap to $60 ≈ −55%; CAG $13.74 gap to $11.50 ≈ −16.3% (out of band); MP ~$53–58 (June-17 AM) far above $42 trigger / above $50 central; ADBE ~$200.80 seven-year-low territory (first-read owed); GIL ~$50.34 (June-16 close after the −18.77% short-report drop), shelve-with-trigger $40 per the 06-17 first-read; WLY ~flat (Q4 beat, FY27 guide above consensus, no dislocation). No registered watchlist trigger fired; no kill criteria firing (no positions). FOMC is now behind us (hold + hawkish dots delivered). Day 17 noise; six-month-test (2026-11-26) remains the evaluator. | | 2026-06-18 | 10,000.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | −3.18% (June-10 SPY settled, carried; June-18 +1.1% bounce implies SPY ~$733 derived ~−2.1%, not booked) | ~+0.9% est (carried, 8 sessions stale) | ~+0.7% est (carried, 8 sessions stale) | +3.18 pp (booked basis; give-back re-widens after today's bounce) | ~−0.9 pp est | ~−0.7 pp est | Day 18. Fourth trading day of week 4; week 4 close (four-day week — Juneteenth Fri June 19). Still 100% cash, no actions. Canonical closes 2026-06-18-closes status: not-yet-settled — FOURTH CONSECUTIVE day — the PM scan fired ~15:45 ET, before the 4:00 PM cash close, so no June-18 row is settle-able. Per benchmark-sourcing-discipline prior-day references carried, no web pull; a fourth P1 discipline-failure is logged in Backlog (flagged fourth-consecutive; the recurrence confirms the PM-scan cron is set too early and the timing fix belongs at the front of the queue). Tape character (mid-session reads, not closes): broad risk-on bounce — the clean mirror of June-17's hawkish-Fed de-rate on the signed interim U.S.-Iran peace deal (signing Friday June 19 in Geneva; US cash markets closed for Juneteenth) and the digested Fed hold. Both source families agree on direction: S&P +1.0% (Yahoo) to +1.15% (TheStreet), Nasdaq +1.5% (both agree), Dow +0.7% to +0.8%, Russell 2000 −0.72% (the one major index down — small caps did not join the mega-cap-tech-led bounce); WTI −3.07% to ~$73.68 (multi-month low, war-premium drain), gold −1.25% to ~$4,326.70 (haven bid eased), 10Y up to ~4.46%; INTC +10% on an unconfirmed Apple-chip-deal claim, IT-services cohort (IBM, Cognizant, Capgemini, Infosys) de-rated on Accenture's June-18 guide cut T3. No SPY ETF settle since June-10 → June-10 SPY settled 725.43 remains the booked reference per rule #4: SPY cum −3.18%, SPY alpha +3.18 pp — carried. An S&P +1.1% session off the June-17 settled basis (7,420.10) implies SPY ~$733 derived (cum ~−2.1%) — not booked. Today's risk-on bounce is the first session since June-17 to push the deployed benchmark back up toward inception — the expected give-back of the booked +3.18 pp re-widens after yesterday's de-rate narrowed it (the symmetric cash-posture cost, same configuration as the June 5→8 and June 15→17 swings). RPV/RPG: no settled reads since June-8 → estimates carried (cum ~+0.9% / ~+0.7%), now eight sessions stale; a tech-led risk-on bounce typically helps RPG (long-duration growth) more than RPV (value), so true cash alpha vs. RPG likely worse than the carried −0.7 pp, vs. RPV roughly held — flagged for priority re-anchor on the next settled pull. Pipeline (carried, intraday): PLTR ~$130.63 gap to $60 ≈ −54%; CAG ~$13.17 gap to $11.50 ≈ −12.7% (out of band, below the $13.74 carry on the staples-soft tape); MP ~$60.89 far above $42 trigger / above $50 central; GIL ~$53.13 (June-17 close, shelve-with-trigger $40); ADBE ~$200.80 seven-year-low territory (first-read owed); KHC ~$23.80 Tier-2 radar; OXM ~$37.47 (fails novelty — the −17% guide-down was June-10). No registered watchlist trigger fired; no kill criteria firing (no positions). The next settled session is Monday June 22, which owes 2026-06-18-closes its settled-close addendum. Day 18 closes week 4 at 100% cash; six-month-test (2026-11-26) remains the evaluator. | | 2026-06-19 | 10,000.00 | n/a (holiday) | 0.00% | −3.18% (June-10 SPY settled, carried; no US session) | ~+0.9% est (carried, 9 sessions stale) | ~+0.7% est (carried, 9 sessions stale) | +3.18 pp (booked basis, unchanged) | ~−0.9 pp est | ~−0.7 pp est | Juneteenth market holiday — no US session. NYSE/Nasdaq/SIFMA bond market closed; EDGAR did not accept filings T3. No US trading day; last trading day was June-18, next session Monday June 22. Still 100% cash, no actions. Canonical closes 2026-06-19-closes status: partial — the partial is structural (no US close to settle), not the cron-timing failure; per benchmark-sourcing-discipline rule #4 every US equity/rate/VIX/SPY/pipeline row carries the June-18 settled basis with a gap note, no web pull, no P1 owed (early PM-scan fire is moot with no 4 PM close to miss). Owed addendum closed on index rows: the file records the dual-confirmed June-18 settled index basis from 2026-06-19-AM — S&P 7,500.58 (+1.08%), Nasdaq 26,517.93 (+1.91%), Dow 51,564.70 (+0.14%), Russell 2,979.77 (+2.12%), VIX 16.40 — resolving the four-day write-back defect at the index level. **SPY ETF still has no settle since June-10 → June-10 SPY 725.43 remains booked: SPY cum −3.18%, SPY alpha +3.18 pp — unchanged; June-18 derived SPY ~$733 (−2.1%) stays not booked.** Only June-19 live prices were commodities/FX (US equities shut): WTI $77 (+4.5%), Brent ~$80 (+3.9%) firming off June-18 lows; gold ~$4,153 (−4%, lowest since June 11, third straight weekly decline) on a one-year-high dollar; DXY ~100.75 (one-year high, +1% on the week, ~77% odds priced for an October Fed hike) — none a US-equity signal, none moves a pipeline name. RPV/RPG June-8 estimates now nine sessions stale, first-item re-anchor for Monday June 22. Pipeline (all June-18 carry): PLTR ~$130.63 gap −54%; CAG ~$13.17 gap −12.7% out of band; MP ~$60.89 above $50 central / $42 trigger; GIL ~$53.13 shelve-with-trigger $40; ADBE ~$200.80 first-read owed; food cohort (KHC/CPB/HRL) carried, CPB/HRL near 52-wk lows. No registered watchlist trigger fired (none can on carried prices); no kill criteria firing (no positions). Day 18 (June-18) remains the last trading day; six-month-test (2026-11-26) remains the evaluator. | | 2026-06-22 | 10,000.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | −3.18% (June-10 SPY settled, carried; no SPY settle June-22, mild −0.35% session) | ~+0.9% est (carried, 10 sessions stale) | ~+0.7% est (carried, 10 sessions stale) | +3.18 pp (booked basis, unchanged) | ~−0.9 pp est | ~−0.7 pp est | Day 19. First trading day of week 5; first normal US session since the Juneteenth holiday. Still 100% cash, no actions. Canonical closes 2026-06-22-closes status: not-yet-settled — FIFTH OCCURRENCE of the early-cron timing failure (June 15–18 the prior four; June 19 the holiday). The PM scan fired ~15:45 ET, before the 4:00 PM cash close, so no June-22 US equity/rate/VIX/SPY/single-name row is settle-able. Per benchmark-sourcing-discipline reader rule #4 prior-day (June-18) references carried, no web pull; a fifth P1 discipline-failure is logged in Backlog; today's note records that current-day closes were not available. Tape (mid-session reads, not closes): mild rotation-flavored risk-off — S&P ~−0.35% midday on the Nasdaq-100 reshuffle (reconstitution supply building toward the June 26 Russell rebalance) and a space/biotech selloff; commodities/FX/Treasuries traded normally (partial): WTI ~$74.3 (−3.5% off June-19 ~$77 on US-Iran de-escalation), Brent ~$81 (open), gold ~$4,165 (up slightly off the June-19 ~$4,153 low), DXY ~100.63 (flat near a one-year high); a contaminated pre-settle Russell read (+2.12%, identical to the stale June-18 figure) was excluded T3. No SPY ETF settle since June-10 → June-10 SPY settled 725.43 remains the booked reference per rule #4: SPY cum −3.18%, SPY alpha +3.18 pp — carried, unchanged. June-18 derived SPY ~$733 (−2.1%) stays flagged-not-booked; the June-18 settled index addendum is closed in the June-19 files but the SPY-ETF settle and the June-22 close are owed to the next clean pull. RPV/RPG: no settled reads since June-8 → estimates carried (cum +0.9% / ~+0.7%), now ten sessions stale — the single largest soft-spot in the ledger and the first-item re-anchor for the next settled pull; a mildly-down rotation session is roughly neutral between the baskets. Pipeline (June-18 carry): PLTR ~$130.63 gap to $60 ≈ −54%; CAG ~$13.17 gap to $11.50 ≈ −12.7% (out of band); MP ~$60.89 far above $42 trigger / above $50 central; GIL ~$53.13 shelve-with-trigger $40; ADSK ~$194 (Tier-2, CFO buy June-15); ADBE ~$200.80 (first-read owed). No registered watchlist trigger fired (none can on carried prices); no kill criteria firing (no positions). Day 19 noise; six-month-test (2026-11-26) remains the evaluator. | | 2026-06-23 | 10,000.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | −3.18% (June-10 SPY settled, carried; June-23 memory-led rout ~−1.3 to −1.5% intraday implies SPY back down toward the booked level, not booked) | ~+0.9% est (carried, 11 sessions stale) | ~+0.7% est (carried, 11 sessions stale) | +3.18 pp (booked basis, unchanged) | ~−0.9 pp est | ~−0.7 pp est | Day 20. Second trading day of week 5. Still 100% cash, no actions. Canonical closes 2026-06-23-closes status: not-yet-settled — SIXTH OCCURRENCE of the early-cron timing failure (June 15–18 and June 22 the prior five; June 19 the Juneteenth holiday). The PM scan fired ~15:40 ET, before the 4:00 PM cash close, so no June-23 US equity/rate/VIX/SPY/single-name row is settle-able. Per benchmark-sourcing-discipline reader rule #4 prior-day (June-18) references carried, no web pull; a sixth P1 discipline-failure is logged in Backlog (the deterministic host-run ingestion layer built 2026-06-23 awaits user scheduling); today's note records that current-day closes were not available. Tape (mid-session reads, not closes): global memory-led semiconductor rout — S&P down ~1.3–1.5% intraday, Nasdaq off ~2.3%, memory/semis cohort crushed (MU ~−9 to −10% into its own print tomorrow AMC); the Dow held far better on defensive rotation (intraday sign conflicted); VIX jumped back toward ~19–20. Commodities/FX/Treasuries traded normally (partial): WTI ~$73.4 (−1.2%, three-month low on US-Iran de-escalation), Brent ~$77.2, gold ~$4,129–4,138 (−1.5%, falling in a risk-off = margin liquidation + firm-dollar/rate-hike pressure, not a haven bid), DXY ~100.3 (near a one-year high), 10Y intraday ~4.48–4.50% on Fed-hike repricing T3. No SPY ETF settle since June-10 → June-10 SPY settled 725.43 remains the booked reference per rule #4: SPY cum −3.18%, SPY alpha +3.18 pp — carried, unchanged. June-18 derived SPY ~$733 (−2.1%) stays flagged-not-booked. Today's rout, if it settles down ~1.3–1.5%, pushes the deployed benchmark back down toward the booked level — the first kit-favorable session since the June-22 mild risk-off, but unbooked. RPV/RPG: no settled reads since June-8 → estimates carried (cum +0.9% / ~+0.7%), now eleven sessions stale — the largest soft-spot in the ledger and the first-item re-anchor for the next settled pull; a memory-led growth rout typically hits RPG (long-duration growth) harder than RPV (value), so true cash alpha vs. RPG likely better than the carried −0.7 pp, vs. RPV roughly held. Pipeline (June-18 carry): PLTR ~$130.63 gap to $60 ≈ −54%; CAG ~$13.17 gap to $11.50 ≈ −12.7% (out of band); MP ~$60.89 far above $42 trigger / above $50 central; GIL ~$53.13 shelve-with-trigger $40; ADSK ~$194 / ADBE ~$200.80 (Tier-2 radar). Three fresh insider-cluster names (intraday partial, reference only): GO (Grocery Outlet) ~$9.30, LOVE (Lovesac) ~$15.22, FCBM (First Carolina Fin.) ~$12.50 — none has a written thesis → flag-for-deeper-work, NO buy today per the new-scan-candidate rule. No registered watchlist trigger fired (none can on carried prices); no kill criteria firing (no positions). Day 20 noise; six-month-test (2026-11-26) remains the evaluator. | | 2026-06-24 | 10,000.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | −3.18% (June-10 SPY settled, carried; June-24 settled S&P 7,358.22 −0.10% implies SPY ~$734.5 derived ~−2.0%, not booked) | ~+0.9% est (carried, 12 sessions stale) | ~+0.7% est (carried, 12 sessions stale) | +3.18 pp (booked basis) | ~−0.9 pp est | ~−0.7 pp est | Day 21. BACKFILLED 2026-06-25 — the June-24 portfolio-daily run did not fire (no Daily-Note, no ledger row, no Backlog entry was written that day, though the June-24 scan cohort exists); this row is reconstructed from the June-24 settled basis recorded in 2026-06-25-closes. See Backlog missed-run defect. Still 100% cash, no actions. June-24 was a settled session: S&P 7,358.22 (−0.10%), Nasdaq 25,476.64 (−0.43%), Dow 51,848.90 (+0.35%, fresh record) dual-confirmed (TheStreet + CNBC/Reuters) T3. WTI ~$70, Brent ~$73, gold broke <$4,000 (firm dollar + hawkish-Fed repricing), 10Y ~4.41% — all lower as US-Iran de-escalation drained the war premium. **No SPY ETF settle since June-10 → June-10 SPY 725.43 remains booked: SPY cum −3.18%, SPY alpha +3.18 pp. The June-24-settled-S&P-derived SPY ≈ $734.5 (−2.0% cum) is computable but not booked per benchmark-sourcing-discipline rule #4 (no ETF settle).** RPV/RPG June-8 estimates 12 sessions stale. Pipeline (June-24): PLTR $106–113, CAG ~$13.41 (near 52-wk low $12.53), MP ~$56.51. No registered watchlist trigger fired; no kill criteria firing (no positions). Day 21 noise; six-month-test (2026-11-26) remains the evaluator. | | 2026-06-25 | 10,000.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | −3.18% (June-10 SPY settled, carried; June-24 settled S&P implies SPY ~$734.5 ~−2.0%, not booked) | ~+0.9% est (carried, 12 sessions stale) | ~+0.7% est (carried, 12 sessions stale) | +3.18 pp (booked basis) | ~−0.9 pp est | ~−0.7 pp est | Day 22. Fourth trading day of week 5. Still 100% cash, no actions. Canonical closes 2026-06-25-closes status: not-yet-settled — NINTH occurrence of the early-cron timing failure (June 15–18, 22, 23, 24 prior; June 19 holiday). PM scan fired ~15:38 ET, before the 4:00 PM cash close; per benchmark-sourcing-discipline settled-/prior-day references carried, no web pull; a seventh portfolio-daily P1 discipline-failure is logged in Backlog, which also logs the NEW June-24 missed-run defect (backfilled above). June-24 settled index basis is now recorded (S&P 7,358.22 −0.10%, Nasdaq 25,476.64 −0.43%, Dow 51,848.90 +0.35% record), clearing the owed addendum at the index level. Tape (mid-session reads, not closes): rotation — Dow fresh record, S&P firm ~+0.5%, Nasdaq lagged on Apple ~−5% (iPad/MacBook price hikes tied to memory costs) and megacap tech; hot in-line May PCE (core 3.4% y/y, highest since Oct-2023; headline 4.1% y/y; ~65–70% odds priced for a September Fed hike) T3. **No SPY ETF settle since June-10 → June-10 SPY 725.43 remains booked: SPY cum −3.18%, SPY alpha +3.18 pp. June-24-derived SPY ~$734.5 (−2.0%) stays flagged-not-booked.** RPV/RPG June-8 estimates now twelve sessions stale — the largest soft-spot in the ledger and first-item re-anchor for the next settled pull. Pipeline (June-25 intraday): PLTR $106.67 (gap to $60 ≈ −43.8%; down hard from the ~$130 June-18 carry on the memory-rout + Apple-led tech weakness, but still far out of band), CAG ~$13.41 (gap to $11.50 ≈ −14.2%, out of band, near 52-wk low $12.53), MP ~$55.55 (above $50 central / $42 trigger). No registered watchlist trigger fired; no kill criteria firing (no positions). Day 22 noise; six-month-test (2026-11-26) remains the evaluator. | | 2026-06-26 | 10,000.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | −3.18% (June-10 SPY settled, carried; June-25 settled S&P 7,357.49 −0.01% implies SPY ~$734 derived ~−2.0%, not booked) | ~+0.9% est (carried, 13 sessions stale) | ~+0.7% est (carried, 13 sessions stale) | +3.18 pp (booked basis) | ~−0.9 pp est | ~−0.7 pp est | Day 23. Fifth trading day of week 5; week 5 close. Still 100% cash, no actions. Canonical closes 2026-06-26-closes status: not-yet-settled — TENTH closes-file occurrence of the early-cron timing failure (June 15–18, 22–25 prior; June 19 holiday); for the portfolio-daily discipline stack this is the eighth occurrence (June 24's run was the missed run, backfilled June-25). PM scan fired ~15:39 ET, before the 4:00 PM cash close, so no June-26 US equity/rate/VIX/SPY/single-name row is settle-able. Per benchmark-sourcing-discipline reader rule #4 the June-25 settled basis is carried throughout, no web pull; an eighth portfolio-daily P1 discipline-failure is logged in Backlog (PM-scan timing fix front-of-queue; the AM scan already logged the tenth closes-file occurrence and recorded the June-25 settled addendum). June-25 settled index basis now recorded, clearing the owed addendum: S&P 500 7,357.49 (−0.01%), Nasdaq 25,358.60 (−0.46%, fourth straight down day on Apple-led megacap weakness), Dow 51,920.62 (+0.14%, fresh record on defensive rotation) — each dual-confirmed (TheStreet + CNBC) T3. Tape character (June-26 intraday, not booked): broad selloff on AI-datacenter cost worries + a reported OpenAI IPO delay — S&P ~−0.19% (7,343.73), Nasdaq ~−0.34% (25,271.31), Dow ~−0.17% (51,831.37) near 15:39 ET, the S&P tracking a >1% weekly loss and the Nasdaq a ~4% weekly loss; today is also the Russell reconstitution effective date (the year's largest coordinated small-cap forced trading in the closing auction, after this run's fire) T3. No SPY ETF settle since June-10 → June-10 SPY 725.43 remains the booked reference per rule #4: SPY cum −3.18%, SPY alpha +3.18 pp — carried, unchanged. The June-25-settled-S&P-derived SPY ≈ $734 (−2.0% cum) is computable but not booked (no ETF settle). RPV/RPG: no settled reads since June-8 → estimates carried (cum +0.9% / ~+0.7%), now thirteen sessions stale — the single largest soft-spot in the ledger and the first-item re-anchor for the next settled pull. Pipeline (June-26 intraday): PLTR ~$113.50 (gap to $60 ≈ −47%, far out of band); CAG ~$13.72 (gap to $11.50 ≈ −16%, out of band, the closest watchlist name); MP ~$55.55 (above $50 central / $42 trigger); KMX ~$53 (Tier-2 insider-cluster radar); BDX ~$143.92 / GIL ~$53.13 (Tier-2 radar). No registered watchlist trigger fired (none can on carried/intraday prices with no live settled session); no kill criteria firing (no positions). Day 23 closes week 5 at 100% cash; six-month-test (2026-11-26) remains the evaluator. | | 2026-06-28 | 10,000.00 | n/a (weekend) | 0.00% | −2.70% (June-26 SPY settled $728.99 — BOOKED, replaces the June-10 $725.43 stale mark) | ~+0.9% est (carried, 14 sessions stale) | ~+0.7% est (carried, 14 sessions stale) | +2.70 pp (booked on June-26 settled SPY; +3.18 pp carried mark retired) | ~−0.9 pp est | ~−0.7 pp est | Weekend run (Sun June 28; no US session June 27–28). Still 100% cash, no actions. Canonical closes 2026-06-28-closes status: partial — structural (no weekend session), NOT the cron-timing failure; no P1 owed (same treatment as the June-19 Juneteenth row). This weekend run's job was to book the settled June-26 close the 2026-06-26-closes file left owed, and it did: June-26 SPY settled $728.99 (two-source: stockanalysis + Yahoo), which the closes file blesses as the new benchmark mark, retiring the June-10 $725.43 reference carried since June-11. June-26 index closes are dual-confirmed settled (TheStreet + Trading Economics): S&P 500 7,354.02 (−0.05%), Nasdaq 25,297.62 (−0.24%, fifth straight down day), Dow 51,876.11 (−0.09%) — the week ran a ~2% S&P / ~4.6% Nasdaq loss on AI-datacenter cost worries + a reported OpenAI IPO delay; Dow +0.6% on the week on defensive rotation; June 26 was the Russell reconstitution effective date (Russell 2000 3,010.08 is a rebalance print, not a tape move) T3. Booking math: SPY cum = (728.99 − 749.25)/749.25 = −2.70%; SPY alpha = +2.70 pp — booked. This is the expected 0.48 pp give-back of the carried +3.18 pp: the booked SPY had been pinned to the June-10 low ($725.43) for thirteen sessions while the index recovered, so settling the current mark upward narrows the cash-posture's measured edge — the symmetric cost flagged on every carried-mark day since June-11. RPV/RPG: still no settled reads since June-8 → estimates carried (cum ~+0.9% / ~+0.7%), now fourteen sessions stale — the single largest soft-spot in the ledger and the first-item re-anchor for the next settled pull. Pipeline (June-26 settled reads): PLTR $112.93 (gap to $60 ≈ −47%, far out of band); CAG ~$14.07 (gap to $11.50 ≈ −18%, out of band, drifted up and away from the −9.3% the Watchlist last logged — still the closest watchlist name but moving the wrong way); MP $53.90 (gap to $42 ≈ −22%, above $50 central); KMX ~$53 / BDX ~$143.92 / GIL ~$53.13 (Tier-2 radar). No registered watchlist trigger fired; no kill criteria firing (no positions). The next true settled session is Monday June 29. Weekend run; six-month-test (2026-11-26) remains the evaluator. | | 2026-06-29 | 10,000.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | −1.55% (June-29 SPY derived ~$737.62 from settled S&P +1.18%; freshest, not ETF-booked) | ~+0.9% est (carried, 15 sessions stale) | ~+0.7% est (carried, 15 sessions stale) | +1.55 pp (freshest derived; June-26 booked +2.70 pp shown alongside) | ~−0.9 pp est | ~−0.7 pp est | Day 24. First trading day of week 6; first clean settled-pull run after the June 15–26 cron-failure streak — canonical closes 2026-06-29-closes pulled ~17:15 ET, AFTER the 4:00 PM cash close. status: partial is structural (single-source commodity/rate rows; SPY has no ETF settle → derived per benchmark-sourcing-discipline rule #4), NOT a timing miss → no P1 owed. Still 100% cash, no actions. Tape: broad US-Iran-de-escalation relief rally — S&P 500 7,440.43 (+1.18%), Nasdaq 25,820.15 (+2.07%), Dow 52,182.74 (+0.59%, first close above 52,000); megacap tech led, Russell 2000 flat (3,010.42, +0.01%); Alphabet joined the Dow (replacing Verizon), +5%; SCOTUS ruled Fed Gov. Lisa Cook keeps her seat T3. Honest-benchmark rule applied: SPY derived $728.99 × 1.0118 = ~$737.62 → cum −1.55%, SPY alpha +1.55 pp reported FIRST as the freshest figure (less flattering than the June-26 booked $728.99 / −2.70% / +2.70 pp, which is shown alongside, never alone). Today's +1.18% relief rally handed back ~1.15 pp of the cash posture's measured edge vs. the June-26 booked basis — the symmetric cash cost, surfaced honestly. RPV/RPG: no settled read since June-8 → estimates carried (cum +0.9% / ~+0.7%), now 15 sessions stale — the single largest soft-spot in the ledger; a megacap-tech-led rally (Nasdaq +2.07% vs Russell flat) lifts RPG more than RPV, so true cash alpha vs. RPG likely worse than −0.7 pp. No web pull per discipline; re-anchor owed (P1). Pipeline (June-29): PLTR $118.08 (+4.56%; gap to $60 ≈ −49.2%, above $85 central); CAG ~$14.08 (flat; gap to $11.50 ≈ −18.3%, closest name but the live recalibrated-ruler test — would trigger $16.80 on a single 30% MoS off $24 central); MP ~$55.62 (+3.2%; gap to $42 ≈ −24.5%, above $50 central); IRDM $52.99 (+21.8%, Rocket Lab $54/sh M&A) / RKLB $90.37 (+14.7%) noted, not value candidates. No registered watchlist trigger fired; no name in ~10% probe range (closest CAG −18.3%); no kill criteria firing (no positions). Cash post-mortem performed (>70% cash >2wk flag): opportunity set largely barren at index records — PLTR and MP trade above their own central values; CAG the lone crack, pending the owed single-discount re-run. Shadow Book marked: aggregate cost-of-waiting ≈ −2.3% (discipline net-saved so far). Two Backlog hygiene items logged: 15-session RPV/RPG re-anchor; missing Near-Miss-Ledger file. Day 24; six-month-test (2026-11-26) remains the evaluator. | | 2026-06-30 | 10,000.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | −1.55% (June-29 SPY derived $737.62 carried; no June-30 closes file written) | ~+0.9% est (carried, 16 sessions stale) | ~+0.7% est (carried, 16 sessions stale) | +1.55 pp (freshest derived, carried; June-26 booked +2.70 pp shown alongside) | ~−0.9 pp est | ~−0.7 pp est | Day 25. Second trading day of week 6; June close / first-half-2026 close. Still 100% cash, no actions. No canonical closes file was written for 2026-06-30 — 13-Research/Daily-Scans/2026-06-30-closes.md does not exist at run time (19:49 ET). This is NOT the June 15–26 early-cron not-yet-settled pattern (where a file was written before the close); here no file was written at all — the first total PM-scan output miss after the June-29 clean settled-pull run. Per benchmark-sourcing-discipline missing-file reader rule: carry the June-29 settled/derived references throughout, no web pull; a P1 reliability item is logged in Backlog ("Closes file MISSING at portfolio-daily run time 2026-06-30," recommending a scheduled-task execution-log check of the June-30 PM scan); today's note records that current-day closes were not available. SPY: June-29 derived $737.62 carried → cum −1.55%, SPY alpha +1.55 pp reported FIRST as the freshest figure (June-26 booked $728.99 / −2.70% / +2.70 pp shown alongside, never alone). No June-30 tape booked. RPV/RPG: June-8 estimates carried, now 16 sessions stale — the single largest soft-spot in the ledger; re-anchor still owed (P1). Pipeline (June-29 carry): PLTR $118.08 (gap to $60 ≈ −49.2%, above $85 central); CAG $14.08 (gap to $11.50 ≈ −18.3%, closest watchlist name but drifted up/away — the live recalibrated-ruler test, would trigger $16.80 on a single 30% MoS off $24 central; pending the owed Backlog single-discount re-run, NO discretionary buy); MP $55.62 (gap to $42 ≈ −24.5%, above $50 central). No registered watchlist trigger fired; no name in ~10% probe range (closest CAG −18.3%) → no information-probe on the table; no kill criteria firing (no positions). Cash post-mortem carried (>70% cash >2wk flag active, day 25): opportunity set unchanged from June-29 on carried prices — PLTR and MP above their own central values, CAG the lone crack pending the single-discount re-run; with no fresh closes, no new name can have entered range. Shadow Book re-marked (carried June-29 closes): aggregate cost-of-waiting ≈ −2.3%, no trigger filled. Day 25 closes the month at 100% cash; six-month-test (2026-11-26) remains the evaluator. | | 2026-06-11 | 10,000.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | −3.18% (June-10 settled; June-11 unconfirmed ~−1.96%, not booked) | ~+0.9% est (carried) | ~+0.7% est (carried) | +3.18 pp (settled basis; ~+1.96 pp on June-11 unconfirmed) | ~−0.9 pp est | ~−0.7 pp est | Day 13. Fourth trading day of week 3. Still 100% cash, no actions. ECB hike day + Iran deal-close rally: ECB raised its key rate 25 bps to 2.25%, first hike since September 2023 T3; tape flat through midday (SPY +0.24% at 11:56 ET) then rallied hard as Iran signaled a deal is close — S&P +1.48%, Dow +1.74%, Nasdaq +1.92% at ~14:49 ET reads; a conflicting un-timestamped TheStreet-family echo carries +0.21%/+0.45%/+0.26% and Russell 2000 is sign-unresolved (+2.33% tile vs −1.10% echo); VIX down both reads (19.8–20.9 from 22.22) T3(/brain/2026-06-11-closes), all rows partial]. No June-11 row settled → June-10 settled references booked per benchmark-sourcing-discipline rule #4, no web pull. Rebase (dual-source settled): June-10 SPY 725.43 (−1.58%, 60.3M vol); S&P 7,266.99 (−1.62%), Nasdaq 25,169.50 (−1.98%), Dow 49,918.78 (−1.87%), VIX 22.22 T3. SPY cum = (725.43 − 749.25)/749.25 = −3.18%; SPY alpha = +3.18 pp — booked. Supersedes yesterday's 733.5 derived (−2.10%), which understated the decline. June-11 unconfirmed close read $734.54 (single unnamed source; +1.26% day) → cum ~−1.96%, alpha ~+1.96 pp — not booked, flagged for tomorrow's settled close. RPV/RPG: no settled reads since June-8 → estimates carried (cum ~+0.9% / ~+0.7%), now three sessions stale across a net-down June 9–11 path; both likely overstate the benchmarks, true cash alpha vs. both likely better than −0.9/−0.7 pp shown. Pipeline: PLTR June-9 SETTLED 132.07 (−3.22%; supersedes $132.28 carry), June-11 read ~$129.50 single-source — gap to $60 ≈ −54%; MP ~$53 (IndexBox) vs $55.20 (intraday row) unresolved — gap to $42 trigger ≈ −21% to −24%, price above $50 central, no action. COO Michael Rosenthal bought 10,000 sh at $54.30 June-10 via family trust (now 136,622 sh) T3 — single buy, not a cluster; insider-signal noted, does not move the thesis; CAG June-11 range $13.09–13.44 — gap to $11.50 ≈ −12% to −14%, out of band, $12.00 not printed; LULU ~$115.46 carry (value-trap flag); ORCL −9.4% at read (day two of capex/financing repricing); ADBE fiscal Q2 AMC, unretrievable — figures from EDGAR tomorrow per edgar-fundamentals-standard. No registered watchlist trigger fired; no kill criteria firing (no positions). The settled-basis alpha (+3.18 pp) is the largest cash-favorable booking of the inception period, but today's unsettled rally would hand roughly a third of it back — the same symmetric noise as the June 5→8 swing. Day 13; six-month-test (2026-11-26) remains the evaluator. | | 2026-07-01 | 10,000.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | −0.98% (July-1 SPY derived ~$741.9 from settled S&P 7,483.23 −0.22%; freshest, not ETF-booked) | ~+0.9% est (carried, 17 sessions stale) | ~+0.7% est (carried, 17 sessions stale) | +0.98 pp (freshest derived; June-26 booked +2.70 pp shown alongside) | ~−0.9 pp est | ~−0.7 pp est | Day 26. Third trading day of week 6; first session of H2-2026 / Q3. Still 100% cash, no actions. Canonical closes 2026-07-01-closes status: partial — the good kind: pulled ~16:40 ET AFTER the 4:00 PM cash close, index core settled and two-source (S&P 500 7,483.23 −0.22%, Nasdaq 26,040.03 −0.66%, Dow 52,305.24 −0.03%, TheStreet + CNBC to the exact level; signs arithmetic-checked vs. the June-30 settled basis). The partial tag is structural (Russell/VIX/commodity/rate single-source; all single-name reads partial; SPY has no ETF settle → derived per benchmark-sourcing-discipline rule #4), NOT a timing miss and NOT a missing file → no P1 owed (a clean run after the June-30 total-miss). Tape: first session of H2 gave a little back after the best quarter since 2020 — all four majors narrowly lower, Dow set a fresh intraday record before cooling to ~flat, Nasdaq lagged on semiconductor profit-taking (the group ran >80% in H1); jobs week underway (ISM/construction AM, ADP + June payrolls ahead), early Warsh comments; gold rebounded ~2% off an eight-month low, oil eased below $70 on the US-Iran Doha talks T3. Honest-benchmark rule: no ETF settle → SPY derived from the June-30 ~$743.5 base × (1 − 0.0022) = ~$741.9 → cum −0.98%, SPY alpha +0.98 pp reported FIRST as the freshest figure (less flattering than the June-26 booked $728.99 / −2.70% / +2.70 pp, shown alongside, never alone). H1's strong finish (June-30 record 7,499.36) compressed the cash posture's measured SPY edge to ~+1 pp; today's −0.22% pullback nudged it back up only marginally — the un-frozen mark. RPV/RPG: no settled read since June-8 → estimates carried (cum ~+0.9% / ~+0.7%), now 17 sessions stale — the single largest soft-spot in the ledger; re-anchor owed (P1). Pipeline (July-1 partial): PLTR ~$116.70 (gap to $60 ≈ −48.6%, above $85 central); CAG ~$13.98 (gap to $11.50 ≈ −17.7%, closest name — the live recalibrated-ruler test: a conventional single 30% MoS off $24 central triggers ~$16.80, and CAG at $13.98 already sits below that, so the non-trigger is an artifact of the deep EPV-only $11.50; front-of-queue for the owed single-discount re-run, NO discretionary buy); MP ~$56.10 (gap to $42 ≈ −25.1%, above $50 central); GIS ~$37.6 (+4% FQ4 beat, above its $30 shelf — not a candidate). No registered watchlist trigger fired; no name in ~10% probe range (closest CAG −17.7%); no kill criteria firing (no positions). Cash post-mortem carried (>70% cash >2wk flag, day 26): PLTR and MP above their own central values; CAG the lone crack pending the single-discount re-run. Shadow Book re-marked: aggregate cost-of-waiting ≈ −2.6% (discipline net-saved; CAG +10.3% the lone compounder). Day 26 opens H2 at 100% cash; six-month-test (2026-11-26) remains the evaluator. | | 2026-07-02 | 10,000.00 | 0.00% | 0.00% | −0.98% (July-2 SPY derived ~$741.9 from settled S&P 7,483.24 +0.00%; freshest, not ETF-booked) | ~+0.9% est (carried, 18 sessions stale) | ~+0.7% est (carried, 18 sessions stale) | +0.98 pp (freshest derived; June-26 booked +2.70 pp shown alongside) | ~−0.9 pp est | ~−0.7 pp est | Day 27. Fourth trading day of week 6; week-6 close (Fri July 3 is the Independence Day holiday, US markets closed; next settled session Mon July 6). Still 100% cash, no actions. Canonical closes 2026-07-02-closes status: partial — the good kind: pulled ~17:15 ET AFTER the 4:00 PM cash close, index core settled and two-source (S&P 500 7,483.24 +0.00%, Dow 52,900.07 +1.14% fresh record, Nasdaq 25,832.67 −0.80%; TheStreet + Yahoo/CNBC to the exact level on S&P/Dow, direction+magnitude on Nasdaq; signs arithmetic-checked vs. the July-1 settled basis). The partial tag is structural (Russell/VIX/commodity/rate single-source; all single-name reads partial; SPY has no ETF settle → derived per benchmark-sourcing-discipline rule #4), NOT a timing miss and NOT a missing file → no P1 owed (second clean post-close run in a row after the June-30 total-miss). Tape: rotation — Dow to a fresh record (+1.14%, 24 of 30 up) while the Nasdaq gave back −0.80% on semiconductor profit-taking and the S&P finished dead flat; gold broke above $4,100 (+2%) after a weak jobs print, WTI fell to ~$67 (lowest since late Feb) on Strait-of-Hormuz flows + US-Iran talks T3. Honest-benchmark rule: no ETF settle → SPY derived ~$741.9 (unchanged from July-1, flat S&P) → cum −0.98%, SPY alpha +0.98 pp reported FIRST as the freshest figure (June-26 booked $728.99 / −2.70% / +2.70 pp shown alongside, never alone). A flat S&P leaves the measured SPY edge at ~+1 pp — the un-frozen mark. RPV/RPG: no settled read since June-8 → estimates carried (cum ~+0.9% / ~+0.7%), now 18 sessions stale — the single largest soft-spot in the ledger; re-anchor owed (P1). Pipeline (July-2 partial): PLTR conflict ~$125.40 (aggregator) vs ~$116.70 (carry), logged not resolved, gap to $60 ≈ −49% to −52%, above $85 central; CAG ~$14.30 (gap to $11.50 ≈ −19.6%, drifted further away from July-1's −17.7% — closest name; the live recalibrated-ruler test: a conventional single 30% MoS off $24 central triggers ~$16.80, and CAG at $14.30 sits below that, so the non-trigger is an artifact of the deep EPV-only $11.50; front-of-queue for the owed single-discount re-run, NO discretionary buy); MP $54.28 (gap to $42 ≈ −22.6%, drifted toward trigger on commodity softness, above $50 central). No registered watchlist trigger fired; no name in ~10% probe range (closest CAG −19.6%, widening); no kill criteria firing (no positions). Cash post-mortem carried (>70% cash >2wk flag, day 27): PLTR and MP above their own central values; CAG the lone crack pending the single-discount re-run. Shadow Book re-marked: aggregate cost-of-waiting ≈ −2.6% (discipline net-saved; CAG ~+12% the lone compounder). Day 27 closes week 6 at 100% cash; six-month-test (2026-11-26) remains the evaluator. |

Monthly summary

Drawdown tracking

Both absolute drawdown (peak-to-trough on portfolio NAV) and relative drawdown vs. the SPY and RPV benchmarks are tracked. The drawdown-protocol fires on whichever is worse at any given check.

Attribution (quarterly)

What drove returns this quarter? Quarterly review of:

• Best and worst contributing positions
• Sectors over- and under-weight vs. benchmark
• Cash drag vs. benefit
• Decisions that mattered (entries, exits, sizing)

How returns are computed

• Daily NAV = sum(position value) + cash. Position value = shares × closing price. Transaction friction per Portfolio § Transaction cost model is debited at the time of each trade and flows through to NAV via cost basis.
• Daily return = (NAV today − NAV yesterday) / NAV yesterday. Initial date returns null.
• Cumulative return = (NAV today − starting NAV) / starting NAV.
• SPY / RPV / RPG benchmarks = same percentage move applied to a hypothetical $10,000 in each ETF at the same inception date. We track each level for comparability; all three are total-return (dividends reinvested in benchmark).
• Alpha vs. each benchmark = portfolio cumulative return − benchmark cumulative return. In percentage points.
• Absolute drawdown = (current NAV − peak NAV) / peak NAV. Always negative or zero. Peak resets only on a new high.
• Rolling 6-mo vs. benchmark = trailing-130-trading-day portfolio return minus trailing-130-trading-day benchmark return. Used by drawdown-protocol to detect relative-underperformance bands even when absolute drawdown is shallow.

Dividends from benchmark ETFs are reinvested in the benchmark calculation. Dividends from portfolio positions are accumulated in cash unless a separate reinvestment instruction is added.

Periodic review

• Daily — the portfolio daily-check task updates this file automatically: today's row in the daily ledger, drawdown updated if new peak or new trough.
• Monthly — first business day of each month, the daily task computes the prior month's summary row.
• Quarterly — first business day of each new quarter, attribution analysis is appended.
• Annual — anniversary of inception, full-year retrospective compares actual returns to the calibration predictions in each thesis tracker.

Reading the alpha

A few months of positive alpha is not evidence the kit works. A few months of negative alpha is not evidence the kit fails. The signal-to-noise ratio in equity returns over short periods is poor.

The meaningful tests:

• 6 months — first scheduled checkpoint per six-month-test. Sample is small; alpha is mostly descriptive but the attribution split (selection vs. sizing, alpha vs. SPY vs. alpha vs. RPV) is already informative.
• 12 months — sample is still small but trends start to be visible. Was alpha positive against all three benchmarks on a return-weighted basis?
• 24 months — covers at least one cycle of revaluation. Alpha at this point reflects more than just random sequencing.
• 36+ months — sample is meaningful. Alpha here, against RPV in particular, is closer to a real verdict on the kit.

Until 12 months, treat alpha as descriptive (here is what happened) rather than evaluative (is the kit working). The exception is the six-month-test which uses pre-specified success and failure criteria written before any data existed, precisely to avoid the rationalization a free-form 6-month read invites.

The factor-vs-skill question

The reason three benchmarks rather than one:

• Alpha vs. SPY positive, alpha vs. RPV positive — the kit is generating excess return above and beyond the value-factor tailwind. This is the configuration the mission claims.
• Alpha vs. SPY positive, alpha vs. RPV ~zero or negative — the kit is delivering value-factor beta, not methodological alpha. A value ETF would do the same for ten basis points of fees.
• Alpha vs. SPY ~zero, alpha vs. RPV positive — value is in a hostile regime; the kit is generating relative-to-style alpha but the style itself is being punished. Continue if the lens has not been falsified per 06-falsification.
• Alpha vs. SPY negative, alpha vs. RPV negative — neither the kit nor the style is working. This is the configuration that escalates to falsification review.

The split matters more than the headline number. Report all four configurations explicitly in monthly summaries from month 6 onward.

Linked

• Portfolio — current positions, drawdown state, transaction cost model
• Transactions — full audit trail
• drawdown-protocol — the portfolio-level kill criteria the drawdown columns feed
• six-month-test — pre-specified evaluation criteria for the first major checkpoint
• position-sizing-kelly — the sizing framework
• margin-of-safety-pricing — the cash-vs-deploy discipline
• methodology-calibration — long-run audit of whether central values are biased
• kit-debrief-001-PLTR — kit improvement log; performance feeds this